Minimizing forced outage risk in generator bidding.
Competition in power markets has exposed the participating companies to physical and financial uncertainties. Generator companies bid to supply power in a day-ahead market. Once their bids are accepted by the ISO they are bound to supply power. A random outage after acceptance of bids forces a generator to buy power from the expensive real-time hourly spot market and sell to the ISO at the set day-ahead market clearing price, incurring losses. A risk management technique is developed to assess this financial risk associated with forced outages of generators and then minimize it.; This work presents a risk assessment module which measures the financial risk of generators bidding in an open market for different bidding scenarios. The day-ahead power market auction is modeled using a Unit Commitment algorithm and a combination of Normal and Cauchy distributions generate the real time hourly spot market. Risk profiles are derived and VaRs are calculated at 98 percent confidence level as a measure of financial risk. Risk Profiles and VaRs help the generators to analyze the forced outage risk and different factors affecting it.; The VaRs and the estimated total earning for different bidding scenarios are used to develop a risk minimization module. This module will develop a bidding strategy of the generator company such that its estimated total earning is maximized keeping the VaR below a tolerable limit.; This general framework of a risk management technique for the generating companies bidding in competitive day-ahead market can also help them in decisions related to building new generators.......
【作者单位】: University of Minnesota.
【关 键 词】: Minimizing forced outage risk in generator bidding.
【授予学位单位】: University of Minnesota.
【学科】: Engineering, Electronics and Electrical.; Energy.
【上篇论文】: 学术学位 - Automated pulsed signal reflectometer for time-domain RF-MEMS characterization in the UHF band.
【下篇论文】: 学术学位 - Development of measurement-based time-domain models and its application to wafer level packaging.